Destroyed Demographic Dividend: The Crisis of Youth unemployment in India

Research Associates of Indian Researcher | December 02, 2021 | Published Online

The neoliberal dream of being successful as a person (mostly male in our social context) often emphasises on three principles: hard work (without being a troublemaker before the authorities or employers); abilities to submit to and survive through the hardship of abject poverty (the conditions of which are often created as a result of the State’s negligence); and to exist as an individual or a singular-subject in essence as opposed to any possible imagination of collective action. This dream is often sold through a range of glamorous advertisements: from sports shoes to fairness creams, from breakfast cereals to chewing tobacco products, etc. In this bewitching, glittery universe, all adversities faced by any individual under the age group of 18-40 under neoliberalism can be solved with purchases made in the market. This deal with the market has also entered social sectors such as health and education, where private entities have ensured that the prospectus of a college is filled with those who are placed above INR 20 Lakhs package per annum (with an INR 60 Lakhs education loan hidden under the carpet), where the health check-ups are sold under packages of at least INR 10,000 in big banners across all metropolitan cities. This dream also sells the idea of an enclave lifestyle, where the ever-expanding metro city provides one with a 2 BHK surrounded by a swimming pool, a community park, a restaurant to go to, etc. to make it ‘LIT’ enough to suit instagrammable ‘Weekend Vibes’.

This emerging Indian dream, which was the phenomenon of the decade in the 2000s, is however failing. It is failing not because people en-mass have become aware of the commodity fetishism or there is constantly emerging discourses against the market in the Indian context. It is failing because the market itself has failed to provide one important element of that dream to its core target group: Gainful employment.   

In this note we aim to divulge three connected phenomena associated with the rising youth unemployment in India, and how systematic withdrawal of the State’s expenditure from economic sectors have deepened the crisis. The first phenomenon that we point to establishes the fact that in the last decade in India, a serious employment crisis has emerged. Specifically, for the age group of 18 to 40 years, we would like to provide an overview of the degree of unemployment that has emerged. The Second phenomenon, which is closely associated with the first one, is something known as a problem of transition: the transition from education to work for the youth in India. We observe that this transition has become more sluggish over time, and the sizeable composition of the labour force, who are now part of the reserve army of labour, are sustaining through either petty commodity production under self-employment or seeking work as unemployed personnel. The third phenomenon is a conjecture that we inductively draw from the regional dynamics of unemployment in India. Where one observes, the states, which are either ruled by the Right-wing Hindutva party (we mean BJP) or have a strong presence of the RSS, have used this reserve army of labour (mostly unemployed youth) and generated false consciousness to induct the youth into their violent project of constructing a sectarian Hindu identity. This making of an assertive Hindu identity is in parallel also associated with creating a significant ‘other’ – be it the Muslims, be it the migrant workers, or the Dalits, who can be violated and can be made to appear responsible for the lack of economic justice to the Upper caste Hindu Male. 

The primary motivation of this article, is not to re-amplify the fact of rising youth unemployment. but, more importantly, to take the premise of this rising youth employment and examine, how the making of this neoliberal dream and its failure, and a parallel rise of the sectarian Hindu identity, often infract the constitutional rights of a Citizen in India: in this case, the right to work for the section which has been termed as a demographic dividend within the economy. 

We have used two large sample datasets prepared by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) under the Ministry of Statistics Programme Implementation (MOSPI). The first dataset is the NSSO-Employment Unemployment Survey conducted during the 2011-12 year and the recent dataset that has been used is the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data for the 2018-19 year.  The definition followed here for a person to be employed (vis-à-vis unemployed) is: ‘If any person has worked even for a month during the reference year in any gainful economic activity, that person is termed as employed under Usual Principal and Subsidiary Status (UPSS).’ This means that any person who is referred to as unemployed in this note would be a person between the age group of 18-40 years, who has actively sought employment and could not get any work opportunity even for a month during this reference year. 

Rising Youth Unemployment in India: A Decomposition Analysis 

Youth or the section of the labour force between the age group of 18 to 40 years is not a homogeneous section. The socio-economic location of a person in the contemporary Indian context is still shaped and often rigidly imposed by the institutions of gender, caste, and religion. These three factors along with some other important factors often determine access to education, access to better livelihood, and create a hierarchical stratification within the society (See Thorat and Neuman 2012). ^[1]

Therefore, the preliminary observation that unemployment rate i.e. the proportion of unemployed personnel within the labour force (labour force includes both employed and unemployed sections within the given age group) rose sharply by 5 percentage points and remains a worrisome albeit a surface-level observation regarding the economy (See table 1). It has been dealt with by several economic scholars that the last decade and, particularly, the Modi regime has introduced a phase of ‘job-loss’ growth from the earlier ‘job-less’ growth in the path of the Indian economy (See Kannan and Ravendran 2019, Padhi and Motkuri 2021). 

The major crux of the decomposition analysis that we undertake here can be summarised from table 2. We observe that out of 100 unemployed personnel, 43 individuals in contemporary India have an education of ‘graduate and above’ level (See Appendix for a State-wise discussion). 

This is the particular section for which, the proportion was already high, but have increased significantly by almost 6 percentage points between the years 2011-12 to 2018-19. One can fairly assume that a large section of these educated sections would be from among the privileged. This assumption is not to diminish the fact that there has been a historical improvement in the participation of Dalit and Adivasi individuals in higher education, but to point to the fact that there still remains a systemic practice of discrimination in the logic and institutions of higher education across the country. Even though a sizable number of Dalit and Adivasi youth under this age group have participated in higher education, it is still more likely for a person from marginalised community to either not enter the higher education sector, and even more likely to join the workforce with meagre wages and deplorable working conditions. It is the historical exclusion from citizenship and economic rights that has ensured in India that a person from a Dalit family with a similar degree as a person from an upper caste family would be excluded from a salaried job and the economic and social security that comes with it. As we draw from the subsequent composite bar diagram, we also observe that 45 per cent of the unemployed labour force who have attained education till at least the graduate level hail from the OBC background, while almost one-third of the same come from the other caste categories (Figure 1, Panel A). 

At this outset, a further disaggregation of this particular section of the unemployed, who are graduates and above, reinstates our previous hypothesis that: 84 percent of this youth section are from the Hindu background (Figure 1, Panel B).

Three key features of the phenomenon of rising unemployment that we observe here are: 

i) A sharp increase in the total youth unemployment rate is contributed by the educated youth of the country; 

ii) This particular section of youth also represents forward caste families, the significant lack of representation of the Dalit and Adivasi people in this section is indicative of the caste-based discrimination that has already hindered the marginalised section to join higher education. Also, because of the economic plight, it is more likely that a person from marginalised section has to succumb to any work available to sustain the lives and livelihood of the family. 

iii) Finally, almost 85 percent of the educated unemployed youth are represented from the religious background of Hinduism. However if we take religion-wise unemployment rates: 8.67 and 8.71 per cent of youth from Hindu households and Muslim Households are unemployed, showing that the impact of joblessness is quite similar.  .  

Before going into the regional aspects of this rise, one clarification to the usual casteist critique should be provided. One might assume that in this age group, because of the caste-based reservation, there might be more inclusion of Dalits and Adivasis in the workforce rather than the explanation provided here. At a glance, if one observes the composition of salaried workforce in India (where reservation is supposed to be followed), a glaring inequality with regard to access to salaried jobs for the youth from Dalit and Adivasi households could be easily observed (Figure 2). 

Regional Aspects of Youth Unemployment: Mapping the Unemployed in India

In this section, we engage with the regional incidence of unemployment in India, particularly focusing on the aspects of youth unemployment rate. There are three substantial findings that emerge from this analysis: (See Figure 3 for references) 

Firstly, states with high unemployment (higher than all India average) rates are visibly heterogeneous in terms of their socio-economic and demographic composition. Therefore we tried clubbing the states in two categories:

Group A: States where the increase in the unemployment rate has surpassed the all India level and the earlier unemployment rate (i.e. 2011-12) was already higher than the all India level: Bihar, Manipur, Uttarakhand Haryana Kerala Tamil Nadu Goa, and Mizoram. For these states, there was already an existing problem of youth unemployment, albeit the nature of unemployment must be different due to differences in educational attainment, basic levels of living, etc. (See Table 3A) 

Group B: States where the increase in the youth unemployment rate has surpassed the all India level and the earlier unemployment rate (i.e. 2011-12) was lower than the all India level: Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra. (See Table 3A). 

Source: Election Data used from Lok-Dhaba, Trivedi Center for Political Data.  

Our primary interest in the analysis here restricts to Group B states. For two reasons, as we have seen under neoliberal policies, there is a general pattern of growing unemployment among the youth, and we can further deduce that the general failure of markets to absorb labourers could be common to all these states. However, apart from this, Group B states are those where, with the exception of Punjab and Andhra Pradesh, the rest of the states have also undergone certain changes in the political climate. 

In the rest of the six states, a strong presence of the RSS and the BJP youth cells have emerged and have now established their presence through both the virtual and physical mobilisation of a right-wing mob. It would be ahistorical to deny that the RSS never had any presence and it is only after 2014 that they gained a foothold in these states. However, the rising unemployment and destroying the neoliberal dream is an important element for the Right-win to function in these States. 

Anecdotally, if we only take examples from two of the states, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, the amount of Hindu mob violence would surpass reports from any other states. The creation of a collective of Hindutva Patriarchs who internalise the jingoist jargon and then become ‘IT-CELL’ workers, is a clear pathway towards establishing and transforming the ‘reserve army’ to a ‘reserve mob’ present in these States. 

Sectarian Hindutva and Neoliberal Crisis: Mob Cadres and Making of the Others

The current political project of the Right-wing has been able to blur the distinction between revolution and counter-revolution in a nuanced manner. It is similar to what Dr Ambedkar had clearly mentioned: Buddhism, a revolutionary force that had provided dignity to the marginalised sections. was in history faced with a counter-revolutionary force of Brahminical principles (See Prof G Ajay’s article for a detailed discussion). ^[2]

The current right-wing is able to function through its different platforms in blurring the counter-revolutionary force (that the RSS is) by incorporating two separate pathways. First, after 70 years of independence, unfortunately, the social subaltern still remains outside the ambits of democratic and legal institutions in India. To represent and be surface inclusive,  the first attempt then would be to stigmatise any secular principle that is associated with the democratic institutions and then mobilise the social subalterns within the dream of a ‘Hindu nation’. 

Second, a more visible pathway in general is to create a mob force, who operate by establishing a binary of the ‘other’. This second force has to often depend on an ‘other’. A Muslim, a Dalit, an Adivasi, a woman, a transgender, et al.: anyone who fits the counter to Hindu-Male narrative in order to mark, accuse and violate. The larger question is, in states where educated unemployment has grown so sharply, is propaganda the only way to keep a mob ready at hand? 

The answer lies in deciphering how propaganda itself has become a piece-rated work within these last few years. Leaving aside the virtual troll brigade and BOT accounts aside, even for States where migration is prevalent, a significant other is often created to keep the ‘Hindutva Sectarian’ alive within the huge reserve army. It is not only easy cash transfers or the immediate election cadre-ship, it is a piece of well-thought-out machinery, maintained to blur the failures of the market, which has primarily caused this huge failure of employment generation. This creation of mob, what Bertolt Brecht has shown in his play, Arturo Ui, is inevitable because there is always some ‘other’ or ‘outsider’ threat that will keep the youth from getting employed. Taking illustrations from the last assembly elections in West Bengal, a serious campaign and a loud otherisation was in place, where ‘Bangladeshi’ immigrants emerged as the narrative to incite the mob.  

While taking account of problems in domestic politics, one must also not forget the unprecedented rise of the Right across the world in general and the US in particular.^[3] It must be noted that the Right in the US has been deeply involved in xenophobic comments, otherising campaigns and Islamophobia.^[4] With the deepening of the economic crisis and a failure to mitigate it, it can be argued that the Right generally blames the ‘other’ (Muslims, immigrants, et al.) by creating a friend –enemy distinctinction to borrow from Carl Schmitt.^[5]

Despite all the rhetoric, which the Right weaponises, they do not have a solution for the crisis of the day (unemployment, education for all, digital divide and so on) in any form be it in theory or in practice. In addition to that, on the political and the cultural front, the Right has largely failed. Not only the social cohesion has been eroded but also larger values of Democracy, Secularism, and  Pluralism has been dismantled thoroughly. 

Right to Livelihood for Youth in India: Restoring the Question

The neoliberal dream of success has failed. It has failed the State to provide decent employment to the youth of the country. A primary concern that still underlines this failure is the constitutional mandate to ensure a life of dignity for all. 

The two-pronged crisis that we have described here can be identified as a crisis of the market in conjuction with a crisis engendered by religious authoritarianism. One feeds off the existence of the other. A primary task of the progressive forces would be to question both, and particularly, to redirect the question back to that of a life of dignity and of work. 

A crucial element of social change is imagining the possibility of demanding and making one’s right to work a legally binding norm with a minimum wage (alternatively, unemployment benefits) assigned to it. Three decades of elaborate growth figures have generated millions of unemployed youth, who are now subjugated under massive propaganda of the Right wing. It is pertinent that the State adheres to the constitution in order to provide decent employment to the youth, as a right, not as a constituent ingredient for the crafting of a Hindu nation.

Appendix: Compendium of Statistical Figures of State-wise Unemployment Situation in India For the Age Group 18-40 Years with Graduation and Above Educational Achievement

About Authors

This note was prepared by Debodeep Banerjee, Hitesh Potdar, Subhro Kundu, Amarjeet Singh, Soham, and Torsa Das. Dipsita Dhar, editor of the Indian researcher has provided assistance for the conceptual ideation of the article. The authors are grateful to Dr Manojan K P, faculty, TISS Tuljapur. 

End Notes

^[1] Blocked by Caste Economic Discrimination in Modern India. Edited by Sukhadeo Thorat and Katherine S. Neuman. OUP, 2012. Kannan, K. P., & Raveendran, G. (2012). Counting and profiling the missing labour force. Economic and Political Weekly, 77-80. Padhi, Balakrushna and Motkuri, V. (2021) ‘Labour Force and Employment Growth in India Evidence from the EUS (2011–12) and PLFS (I and II)’ Economic and Political Weekly 56 (47), 58-63

^[2] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/making-sense-of-hindutva/article27527418.ece

^[3] See ‘Donald Trump was a monster Forged by the American Free Market’ published in Jacobin, November 2020 for more.

^[4] For comments on Xenophobia and issues of racism see ‘Trumpism will endure’ in Jacobin, January 2021.

^[5]I cannot enter in the details of the concept due to the reasons of space but it very striking, See for more Carl Schmitt, The concept of political,  University of Chicago Press , 1996, London.